Abstract
Considering two facts, namely the Islamic Republic’s “Looking East” strategy and the establishment of a new world order following Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, as well as Ali Khamenei’s support and justification for it, the Islamic Republic ties its future to the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Due to its worldwide isolation, Russia includes the Islamic Republic in the Ukraine conflict. The Islamic Republic’s leaders believe that the East will triumph over the West in the new world order, and that they must remain active in the victorious world. The reality, however, is that as the Islamic Republic’s ability to tackle society’s concerns diminishes, the distance between society and government expands; and as this gap widens, the Iranian regime moves closer to Russia and China and away from the West. Thus, in the event of widespread disturbances that could lead to military conflicts, the likelihood of future Russian military action in Iran will increase. Russia must ensure the survival of the anti-Western Islamic Republic. Problematic, though, is the fact that “Russia itself has become a loathed nation.” In the event of internal conflict in Iran, the likelihood of foreign intervention in the region will increase. The public revelation by Khamenei’s foreign policy adviser Kamal Kharazi of the Islamic Republic’s technological capacity to produce nuclear weapons makes more sense. The Islamic Republic has pursued the acquisition of nuclear weapons as a deterrent for more than two decades and has no intention of abandoning this objective. “When it comes to system defense, no other tool appears as potent and efficient as nuclear deterrence.”
[1] Mahmoud Sariolghalam, “Factors Shaping Iran’s Corrent JCPOA Caculations,” MEI, July 11,2022. (mei.edu).
